Copyright 2000 Puckjunkie Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Photographs courtesy of BBS
Injuries and Fantasy HockeyPart I - Why are these guys so brittle?
October 27, 2000
Every year there are some players that always seem to get hurt. In the 80s there was Pat Flatley of the Islanders. He was forever afflicted by something. In the early 90s it was Wendel Clark. Over the past few years, one player has personified the injury struggle - Saku Koivu. So what makes players more vulnerable? Are they genetically inferior? Do they not prepare enough in the off-season? Are opposing players running them? Well, there is no easy answer, but in this four-part series we'll have a look at who these players are and why they are "at-risk". Over the next four weeks we will look at identifying the injury-prone player, style of play and injuries, injury trading tactics, and replacing injured players through free agency and re-drafts.
So let's start off with the obvious. Why is predicting injuries so important in fantasy hockey? It's simple. The more games a player plays, the more chance he has to put stats on the board. Ok, ok, so that isn't brain surgery. But you would be surprised how many people don't take that into account. Sure they may think about it with Koivu, but how many consider it for players such as Turgeon, Savage, and Nieuwendyk? What we want to do in this series is help you identify not only injury prone players, but also those who put themselves at risk because of the way the play. Now I can hear you out there saying "What do you mean by the way they play?" A lot of skilled players (especially Europeans) have taken to proving their toughness in the NHL. As a result they take unnecessary chances with their health. But we'll have more on that in Part 2 of this series.
For now let's concentrate on the injury prone player. Off the top of your head, identify the top 15 players who missed a lot of time with injury over the past 3 years. The guys that probably come to mind are:
Now are all these guys just injury prone? It seems that way sometimes. But with some it is directly related to the style of game they play (or try to play). And even with the guys not on this list who still miss time with nagging day-to-day injuries, many are forced to play a style of game their body is not used to.
So when does a guy go from injury risk to injury prone? Well, if a player misses in excess of 13 games per year (or approximately 4 weeks) over an extended period of time, he is an injury risk. Someone picking this player must "discount" his value before he is selected. "Discount?" you say. All that means is that you are expecting that he will miss time...he always has...and you work that into what you kind of stats he'll produce. Now the more optimistic sort says "I'll pick him up just in case he doesn't get hurt" or "Just imagine what this guy would do if he'd stay healthy." How many times have you heard that in your league about Koivu, Savage, Turgeon, or Alfredsson? The reality is that projections for these players must always take into account expected time lost (discount).
How much do you discount? Well an easy answer would be total games missed divided by the number of seasons he's played. That's a good start, but it's not where you should stop. When we, at Puckjunkie, project stats for players we also take into account when their last serious injury was, whether they are currently recovering from an injury, or whether their injury problem is improving or getting worse. For instance a player like Alfredsson is fairly consistent. He gets injured for about 10-15 games per year. A simple average gives you a good "discount". But with other players you can't do that. You also have to take into account whether the injury is chronic (recurring concussion risk, bad back, wonky knee, etc.). In this case you would probably discount higher.
Do you need a fancy formula to project how much you should discount a player? No. For the most part a scan through a player's games played for the past few years will reveal a lot. But let's face it. Many of you are in very competitive leagues. Every edge counts. So before you draft or before you make a deal, pull out your calculator (or become a subscriber and check out our stat projections) and spend just a little time figuring out the injury risks associated with players.
Next Week: Part II - Injuries, Age and Style of Play
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