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The NHL returned in 2005/06 weighed down by a
whole slew of question marks: Would the league clamp down on obstruction be
sustained? Would the fans return? Would the salary cap make small-market
teams competitive? And would Keith Tkachuk order the single or the family
pack of Krispy Kremes? Here are some of the interesting answers we found in
the hockey season just past.
1. Scoring Is Up Well...duh! Here’s hoping
that the rest of our observations won’t be so obvious. It’s hard to overlook
the fact that scoring drastically increased between the 03/04 and 05/06
seasons. But let’s be careful before we declare that the dog days of the
1990s are behind us. Check out these stats: Even Strength (ES) scoring only
increased about 5% while Power Play (PP) scoring was up almost 28% and Short
Handed Goals (SHGs) were up about 22%. What does this mean to you? Put a
huge premium on guys who play the special teams. As long as the league
continues its “no tolerance policy” and the players fail to catch on,
special team players will get a lot more ice time, and, therefore, more
opportunity to score. 2. The Death of the
Pugilist Teams will not pay big bucks for a guy
who strictly fights. Instead, teams want bang for their buck. Fighters have
to have “hands” and not just fists (e.g. Chris Neil, Matthew Barnaby, Todd
Fedoruk) or be able to play a defensive/checking role. The time of the
heavyweight is done; the cruiserweight now rules the roost. If you are
looking for Penalty Minutes (PIMs), look to the super-pests (Sean Avery is
the poster boy) and tough talented guys first.
3. Rookies Rule the Day
There were over 100 rookies who played more than 25 games in the NHL last
season compared with only 70 in 03/04. Some will argue that the lock-out
year-off created a pent up demand/opportunity for rookies. That may be true
at the top skill levels (think Ovechkin), but for lesser rookies that really
doesn’t appear to be the case. After all, the same amount of on-ice
positions were available throughout the league. More likely, this increasing
level of rookies can be chalked up to the fact that in the “New” NHL it
makes more sense to bring up a rookie on a two-way contract than commit to a
marginal vet on a one-way deal. Watch for the trend to continue in 06/07, as
more teams find themselves up against the cap limit with roster spots to
fill. Taking a flyer on a rookie will still be a fantasy hockey risk, but
the chance of reward is enticingly higher (assuming you pick the right guy).
4. Goal-Scoring is More Distributed
Accounting for the 15% scoring “inflation” between 03/04 and 05/06, 80
players had 25 goals or more last season. Only 65 reached an equivalent
level in 03/04. Now that may not seem like a lot on the surface, but that
means that an average of nearly 3 players per team scored at least 25 goals,
compared to just over 2 per team in the previous season. So look a little
deeper in the late rounds of the draft: the second line guys may surprise
you. 5. The Goalie Gap Is Expanding
The range of Save Percentage (SV%) among the top 20 goalies (.929 to .902)
was enormous in 05/06 compared to the previous season. In 03/04 the range
was a much more compressed .933 - .913 for the top 20. So what does this all
mean? Note how much the low end changed (as opposed to the high end). Good
goalies stayed good: the also-rans didn’t. You can’t just wait to pick your
goalies at the end of the draft anymore. There really is a difference
between the good and the average ones.
So there we have the first five lessons for fantasy hockey from the “New”
NHL. In Part II we’ll examine the role of penalty-killers, mourn the death
of the shutout, debate the death of PIMs as a fantasy category, discuss the
negatives of plus players, and discuss the impact of the imbalanced
scheduled. |
