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Last week's column looked
at preparation for the most basic types of office pools. This week I'm
going to talk about strategies for winning (or at least maximizing your
chances of finishing in the money and thereby making all the guys in the
pool severely choked). Remember that irritating the guys in the pool
should be one of your primary goals. The only thing worse than getting
beaten by a "chick" is getting beaten by a dog (you'll have to
wait a few weeks for that story).
The
most important question out there is:- how do you know which players will
excel this year? Well, the short answer is… you can't know, more often
than not it's a crapshoot. Beyond a few bonefide superstars who, not
withstanding injuries, will perform well year after year, you just can't
be sure. But you can maximize your chances of guessing right.
The
Basic Office Pool (not restricted by position)
If
you’re new to office pools, or new to hockey in general, these are the
pools where you have the best chance of making some serious money in your
first year.
To
get ready for the first few rounds make sure you've listed all the active
(signed and ready to play) superstars - 80 point and above players. But,
be prepared for them to go very quickly as the draft gets underway. Even
with superstars, watch past performance. If a player consistently gets
hurt, you might want to move him down a bit on your list. For example,
Ottawa Senators forward Daniel Alfredsson is one of the most talented
players in the NHL, regularly averaging over a point a game. But, he
hasn't played even close to a full season since 1996-97, because of an
assortment of injuries. Think of this process as choosing a Christmas
Tree, you want something sturdy and long lasting, not spindly with the
needles already falling off.
Depending
on the number of people in the pool, rounds three and four would generally
be the time to look for players who are poised to have a breakout year.
Look for at least three years of NHL experience, consistent performance
(50-60 points), players who are at least 25, and a relatively injury-free
career (ignore freak injuries; they can happen to anyone in a game played
with wooden sticks, bad attitudes, sharp metal and frozen rubber). Think
very carefully about drafting a player whose bio says ‘chronic groin
problems’ or ‘only four concussions so far’…
In
the middle rounds look for solid performers, players who average 45-55
points a year, who play a consistently high number of games. It doesn't
matter if the player is a forward or a defenseman - if he's proven his
ability to get points consistently, take him. And don't be put off by
other poolies (read "guys") yelling out "plumber"
every time you take one of these players. Just think how much money
plumbers make.
The later rounds present a
real challenge for all hockey poolies. But these are the make or break
players. This is the time to pick up injured superstars, as long as you
know they're not going to be out for the whole season - remember the math
problem from last week: 100 point player times half a season = 50 points.
That would be a whole lot better than the dregs of the league that are
left by this point in the draft.
Good
players who are in the latter part of their career are sometimes worth a
pick by this point. Ignoring the ‘old guys’ can cost you big time.
People in my rotisserie pool found this out last year with a guy named
Paul Coffey. This would also be the place to take a chance on rookies,
players with a little NHL experience, and so on.
Finally,
with your last pick treat yourself… go out on a limb, let your chickdom
reign. My favourite strategy is to pick the guy with the most obscure name
in the league. To this end I'll be picking Ilja Bryzgalov (Anaheim Mighty
Ducks) with my last pick at our October draft. Other people pick their
favourite has-been, guys with more than one Z in their name, guys who get
injured every single season… "but this could be the year", and
so on. Remember that this is supposed to be fun. [Addendum: okay I didn’t
draft Bryzgalov, there were just too many solid performers left in the
twelfth round. Besides everyone knows that draft day strategies usually go
right out the window when the draft actually starts].
Words
of Caution
Every
year a player who seems to be completely and utterly washed up, will
produce an amazing season. Libel laws prevent me from naming names, but
they'll be easy to identify. Again, look at past performance, look at age
(if a player's pushing 40, he's likely past his prime!), and look at the
number of times a guy's been traded. Avoid these players at all costs!!!
Also
avoid players who have performed well in the past, but have recently been
traded to expansion (new to the league) teams. It will take a while
(sometimes a very long while) for these teams to start performing well.
These players are good to take in the middle to late rounds, but don't
waste an early pick on them.
Be
wary of "can't miss rookies." These are players who had amazing
junior or international careers, but haven't logged a minute of NHL
ice-time. You might risk a late round pick on them, but even so, you're
taking a big chance. Likewise watch out for rookies who might have had an
amazing first year, but may now fall victim to the dreaded sophomore jinx.
Again, these are players for the late rounds.
And
now a word about office pools with restricted numbers of forwards and
defensemen. There’s not a lot of difference between the basic type of
pool we just talked about, and pools where the number of position players
is fixed – except you’ll need to separate players into forwards and
defensemen (some pools even separate forwards into centers, and left and
right wingers) before the draft starts.
All
right, now for the last type of office pool – those that use prearranged
player lists. Usually these pools are created by taking last year’s top
200 scorers and breaking them down into distinct groups of five or six
players. You then pick who will do the best this year. Here’s the skinny
on these pools:
CONSISTENCY,
CONSISTENCY, CONSISTENCY…avoid guys who are injury prone and guys who
haven’t signed by the middle of October (unless you can make changes
during the season). Otherwise pick the consistent performers. The rookie
category is a crapshoot, and anyone who tells you otherwise… well…
just pick someone. The pugilist category is there largely for
entertainment value, but look for the guy who can actually put the puck in
the net on occasion (minimum 12 points before you even consider him). If
you’re asked to pick a goalie, stick to the Northeast or Atlantic
Divisions… places where ‘playing the trap’ is considered a good
thing.
Next
Time: What’s In A Name???
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Want more "Chicks"? See 2001/02
