So You’re Having A Playoff Hockey Draft…By Geoff Rhine

April 10, 2001

For the hardcore hockey fan, there is truly nothing better than the Stanley Cup playoffs. The regular season is truly thrown out the window and a few big upsets occur, the referees put their whistles away, and best of all, the hockey gets downright nasty. For the hardcore fantasy hockey fan, the playoffs are just as exhilarating. Those regular season pool stats now mean absolutely nothing, the scoring format is usually a little different, and the competition is bloodthirsty. Because this is the case, the hockey poolie must treat a playoff draft much differently than a regular season draft. No longer can you walk into your draft without a plan- you must have an idea of what is going to unfold in the NHL playoffs. What you need is a set of guidelines for setting up, scoring, drafting, and of course, winning your playoff hockey pool. Luckily, you have come to the right place.

After a long, complicated regular season full of trades, active lineups, and points for plus/minus, it is often wise to keep your playoff pool as simplistic as possible. The ideal number of owners is anywhere from 8 to 12, with each team drafting 10 players. However, if the number of owners in your pool is higher or lower than 8-12, your pool can still work- just make sure you keep the total number of drafted players somewhere between 80 and 120. If the total is under 80, there are bound to be many quality players left undrafted, and if the total is higher than 120, some teams are bound to end up drafting players like Eric Messier and Colin White, who had as many regular season points as I had dates.

It is also wise to keep the scoring simple. This way, poolies are usually less wrapped up in calculating totals as they watch the games, and are able to fully appreciate the spectacle that is playoff hockey. Basically, 1 point for a goal and 1 point for an assist should do it. Of course, many of you will employ more complex scoring systems, and find them to be much more engaging. I have no problem with that, but in my experience, playoff pools seem to work out better using a scoring system a 4 year old could figure out. If you absolutely need things spiced up a little, consider adding an additional point for an overtime goal, or even allowing goalies to be drafted (award 1 point for a win, and 1 additional point for a shutout). Anything more, and your playoff pool will start to look a little too much like your regular season pool.

Before you enter the war room, there are a few things you must do. The first is to map out the Stanley Cup Playoffs much like you would the NCAA Tournament bracket, with one exception- include the number of games you think each series will last. For example, let’s use this year’s match-ups in the Western Conference (keep in mind, these are not my predictions, but just examples). In the first round, you predict the following:

• (1)Colorado over (8)Vancouver in 5 games
• (2)Detroit over (7)LA in 6 games
• (6)Edmonton to upset (3)Dallas in 7 games
• (4)St. Louis to beat (5)San Jose in 7 games

After figuring out the match-ups for the second round (highest seed remaining versus lowest seed remaining), you predict this to happen:

• (1)Colorado over (7)Edmonton in 6 games
• (4)St. Louis over (2)Detroit in 7 games

In the third round:

• (1)Colorado over (4)St. Louis in 6 games

And, after doing the same thing for the Eastern Conference, you predict:

• (1)Colorado over (7)Toronto in 5 games

Now that you have the entire playoffs mapped out, the next step is to add up the number of games you predicted each team will play. Using the predictions outlined above, your Western Conference totals would look like this:

• (1)Colorado – 22 games
• (2)Detroit – 13 games
• (3)Dallas – 7 games
• (4)St. Louis – 20 games
• (5)San Jose – 7 games
• (6)Edmonton – 13 games
• (7)LA – 6 games
• (8)Vancouver – 5 games

The next step is to multiply each player’s PPG (points per game) by the number of games you have predicted his team will play. Let’s use Joe Sakic as an example:

Sakic’s 1.44 PPG multiplied by 22 games = 32 points

After ranking your projected point totals, you are left with a very reliable tool for drafting your team. You may choose to draft your team solely on the basis of this list, or you may use it as guideline- that will be covered below. Keep in mind, however, that your list is entirely dependent upon your predictions of which teams will advance in the playoffs, and how many games each series will last. Therefore it is best to map out the playoff tree with your brain and not with your heart, and to study each possible match-up as much as you can. In some cases, you may decide that it is to your advantage to map out more than one scenario, particularly if you can’t decide who will come out on top in a certain series. Note the similarities and the differences between the two- this will help you determine your strategy at the draft table. A few more tips in this regard:

1. Teams that advance in the playoffs always, ALWAYS, have stellar goaltending. I’m sorry Vancouver, but Cloutier/Essensa is just not going to cut it.
2. Results from regular season match-ups mean little in the playoffs. Instead, look at things like home-ice advantage, past encounters in the playoffs, hot streaks leading into the playoffs, and injuries.
3. Upsets are going to happen. Since the NHL adopted its current playoff format, the top 4 seeds in each conference have never all advanced to the second round.

Now that you have completed the necessary pre-draft preparations, there is only one cardinal sin you can now possibly commit- drafting your team with no specific strategy. In actuality, this applies to all drafts in every fantasy sport. You can have every statistic from the last 25 years memorized and available for instant retrieval from your long-term memory, but that could all mean jack if you start to waver from your plan and pick random players for no apparent reason. Here are 4 basic options/plans that I have seen work to perfection, and can recommend whole-heartedly (in no particular order):

1. Draft the highest ranked player remaining on your projected point total list.

This strategy is really quite simple, but again, its accuracy/results depend entirely upon your predictions. This fatal flaw often manifests itself in players with very high PPG averages, whose teams lose in the first or second round, when you have predicted their teams were going to advance a round or two further. A perfect example for this season would be Mario Lemieux. Lemieux’s PPG, an astounding (for this day in age) 1.77, multiplied by 12 games (approximately equal to the number of games Pittsburgh will play if they win their first round series and lose their second), is equal to 21 points. In most cases, that predicted point total would place him in the top 5 (certainly within the top 10) overall players. However, if Pittsburgh was to lose in the first round (contrary to what you predicted), he would likely score half as many points, and as a result, you have wasted a high draft pick. Therefore, if you are going to abide by this method, most important is that you are confident in your playoff tree predictions.

Teams chosen using this strategy are characterized by a high number of superstars, even though they are scattered amongst many different teams, most of which are not likely to advance very far in the playoffs (players from the Cup-favorites are likely to be scooped up by teams employing different strategies). These types of teams rack up big points in the first and second rounds, and try to hold on for dear life during the third and fourth rounds.

2. Draft players only from the two teams you predicted to make it to the Stanley Cup finals.

If, after mapping out the playoff tree a few times, you become fairly certain about which two teams will meet in the finals, you may decide to choose players solely from those two teams. Your predicted point totals ranking list is again invaluable, but this time you apply it only to two teams, and not 16. The thinking with this plan is that even third or fourth line players from those two teams will end up with higher point totals than a superstar from a team destined to lose in the first round. Furthermore, because these teams are the two that are least susceptible to suffering an upset and getting knocked out of the playoffs (in your opinion), you can be fairly confident that they will play a high number of games. Of the four strategies described here, this is the most popular, and can work perfectly if you have selected the right teams. However, if too many people in your pool adhere to this strategy, and each of them has the same two teams in mind, the available talent pool may be depleted very quickly.

For example, let’s look at this year’s playoffs compared to last year’s. This year, the general consensus is that Colorado and New Jersey will meet in the finals. If too many of your pool’s owners believe that will be the case, this strategy may prove to be too popular for its own good, and none of the teams will have a very imposing roster (in fact, there won’t even be enough players to go around!!). Last year, there was no real general consensus- Colorado, St. Louis, and Dallas all were mentioned as favorites in the West, as Philadelphia, Toronto, Buffalo, and New Jersey were in the East. If you would’ve selected this strategy and used Dallas and New Jersey as your drafting teams, you would’ve won your pool in a walk.

Teams of this nature tend to finish up the first round in last place, and as the draft progresses, slowly work their way up the leaderboard. They are characterized by, obviously, players from only two high-caliber teams, some of which are superstars and some of which are third/fourth liners.

3. Draft players only from the teams you predicted will make it to the "final four".

If you were having trouble mapping out your playoff tree and found that you needed to account for more than one scenario, this is the strategy for you. It follows the same criterion for player selection as number two (highest ranking player remaining on your predicted point total sheet), but instead of limiting the number of teams to 2, the number becomes 4. Although this allows a little more room for error, it still requires that you be fairly confident in predicting the four teams that will make it to the Stanley Cup semi-finals. Although four teams is ideal, the number could be lowered to 3 or raised as high as 5 or 6, depending on how confident you are in your selections.

For example, if you feel that New Jersey will definitely make it out of the East, and that the West will be a battle between Colorado and San Jose, pick from those 3 teams only. If you think the East title is between Toronto, Philadelphia, and New Jersey, and that the West is between Detroit and St. Louis, pick from those 5 teams only. As you can see, this strategy is really just a variation of the second, with more emphasis on the playoff tree as a whole.

These teams tend to be composed of mostly second line players from a number of Cup-contending teams. Championship teams drafted using this strategy typically score big points in the third round, and are lucky enough to have about half of their players advance to the Cup finals.

4. Draft 80% of your players from one "sleeper" team.

I have never been brave enough to try this method, but I have seen it work once or twice. The best example was a team drafted in a 1998 playoff pool that consisted almost entirely of Buffalo Sabres. The owner of this team was wise enough not to draft any Sabres with his first two picks- he figured that if any other poolies were going to draft any Sabres at all, it would be in the late rounds and not in rounds 1 or 2. He drafted two Colorado Avalanche players in rounds 1 and 2, and his remaining 8 players were all Sabres. I can remember watching the finals and thinking to myself, ‘this guy is getting a least two points for every goal Buffalo scores!" While the rest of us each had 1, sometimes 2 or 3 Stars left, he had every Buffalo player and won our pool quite handily.

It goes without saying that this strategy is the riskiest, but also the one with the most upside. You should consider using it if you have a strong hunch that a very quiet 4^th or 5^th seed (not unlike Jersey last year) has a real chance at making it all the way. Or, if you keep finishing in last place in your playoff pool every year, try it as an alternative. Keep in mind that this team must have excellent goaltending and a great defense, and please, don’t pick with your heart here.

These "sleeper" teams, when chosen properly, lurk in the bottom third of the standings until the semi-finals, when they begin to make their steady ascension to the top. They are often laughed at on draft day, but when they work, boy, is it a thing of beauty.

In closing, let me point out that it is one thing to take your strategy to the draft, and it is quite another to let your draft strategy come to you. What I mean by this is simple- choose your strategy according to the flow of the draft. If you were planning to pick all New Jersey and Detroit players and by your first pick the top 4 players from each of those teams have been chosen, don’t settle for Bobby Holik or Slava Kozlov. Playoff drafts can be won a number of different ways- don’t hesitate to attempt a strategy that is being placed in your lap, ever so subtly. After all, it is a rare occurrence for the so-called Cup-favorites to actually meet in the finals. And, if you think about it, isn’t that why we love the NHL playoffs so much??