Playoff 2001 - Mid-Season Preview
 
January 15, 2001

Playoffs? It isn’t even the All-Star break! Yet if you take a good look at the standings, and at what teams have done so far, it is easy to see the playoff picture starting to develop. And while there are still lots of question marks, and lots of hockey to be played, one of the main differences between fantasy and reality hockey, is that teams rarely buck the trend that they have already established. So that said, we have taken our first shot at a playoff prediction. Yah, we know it is early, but we wouldn’t be much good if we told you what was going to happen when everyone else can figure it out. And we may make some mistakes, and miss a couple of things here and there. But who’s perfect? We’ll start in the East, with our predictions of who will finish where, in the hunt for Lord Stanley’s mug.

Part 1 - The East

Remember when the East used to be the class conference in hockey? Not any more. Going into the second half of the season, the first place team in the East wouldn’t finish higher than 6th in the West. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing. Defending champions New Jersey would have finished 4th in the West last season. Think they care? Here’s a bet that first round losers St Louis didn’t have nearly as much fun drinking out of the President’s Trophy. Whatever team finally comes out of the East will have just as good a chance at finishing with the Cup. Better maybe, because of far easier travel schedules. But they have to make the playoffs first! Let's start with the easy ones.

There are 6 teams that would appear to have a pretty good hold on a playoff position, even at the halfway point of the season. New Jersey, Ottawa, Buffalo, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have all demonstrated that they have enough talent and depth to at least assure themselves of a post-season berth. Add Washington, a team taking advantage of some poor league "demographics," and that leaves the rest of the East battling it out for one remaining spot.

1. 

New Jersey Despite some early season woes, the defending champions seem to have regained their stride and are a lock to finish at the top of their division, with a serious shot at the conference. The Devil's have all of the pieces in place to mount a successful defence of the Cup. With the possible exception of Claude Lemieux, they have lost almost no one of consequence from last year’s cup winning team. And their stumbles early on were more a result of some key unsigned free agents, rather than an inherent weakness in the team. Look for the Devils to pick up a key piece or two for the playoff run, and to round into form nicely by the start of April.

Likely Conference Rank:  1st
Chance of Missing the Playoffs Nil

2. 

Ottawa – The Senators, backstopped by Patrick Lalime, appear on track for a 3rd straight playoff appearance. The return of Alexei Yashin has given the team much needed depth, and Lalime has started to come into his own as a stopper. The biggest question mark for the Senators is whether he is capable of carrying them through the playoffs - or at very least, past the first round. As always, injuries are an issue - the Sen's must keep their key players healthy - particularly Alfredsson and Arvedsson. The latter of those two is the key to the success of both Bonk and Hossa, so watch for a big drop off if he gets injured again.

Likely Conference Rank:  2nd
Chance of Missing the Playoffs Nil

3.

Pittsburgh – The story of the season so far, and not because of their play. First it was Jagr's slump; then it was the return of Mario. Now it is how far can they go without first class goaltending. The presence of "The Magnificent One" instantly upgrades the Penguins from borderline playoff entrants to top 4 seed. But without a legitimate top rank goaltender (our apologies to Garth Snow, but we just don't have the faith that he can carry a team on his back - as a playoff goalie needs to) the Pens maybe looking at an early playoff exit. That said, look for them to sign or trade for a playoff proven goalie before the deadline. Can you say Tom Barrasso? Word is, he knows the owner.

Likely Conference Rank:  4th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs Slim

4.

Buffalo – Will this or won't this be the Dominator's last year? Who knows. But suffice it to say, the Sabres have one of the best one-two goaltender combinations in the league right now, and that alone should be enough to guarantee them a playoff berth. They play a tight defensive style, they work hard every night, and with the expected return of Doug Gilmour (injury) and Mike Peca (unsigned), we think they have both the leadership and the grit to make another serious playoff run. And yes, there are some big ifs in this list (if Hasek rounds into form and doesn’t get traded, if Peca signs and if Gilmour can stay healthy), but we have faith that the Sabres will get it all together in time to take second in their division - and the unenviable task of facing Mario and the Pens in the first round.

Likely Conference Rank:  5th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs Slim

5.

Toronto Last year the Leafs did not have enough toughness. So they went out and signed Shane Corson and Gary Roberts. Now the Leafs seem to have lost the team speed that made them such an effective offensive force last year. That said, it is defence and goaltending that wins playoff games, and the additions of Corson and Roberts will certainly give the Leafs more toughness and character for a playoff run. Yet the team still hasn't filled the void on defence left by the injury to Bryan Berard, and without a bona fide "go to guy" on defence, we doubt that they can go far. The X factor with the Leafs is Eric Lindros. While he doesn't fill their most pressing need, the "Big E" would bring another dimension to this team. That's of course, if Bobby Clarke has the sanity to trade him before the deadline. But no one has ever questioned Clarke's sanity….

Likely Conference Rank:  6th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs Slim

6.

Philadelphia – On their way to the conference finals last year, the Flyers had to cope with the injury and impending free agency of their top player, a coaching change and controversy, the off-ice circus that is the Clarke-Lindros relationship, and a playoff untested, rookie goalie. Sound familiar? And to think that they came within a goal of advancing to the finals. Hey, maybe this year Team Turmoil can win the Cup! But seriously, the biggest "if" hanging over this team is the Eric Lindros saga. If GM Clarke can put aside his personal feud with the Lindros family just long enough to work out a deal that will see Lindros move to another team (unlikely), he just might be able to remove enough distractions and gain enough in return to get his team past the first round again. But we doubt it. Clarke wants too much for Eric, and he has made the issue personal. Combine that with the John Leclair back injury/re-signing saga and we think the Flyers will be lucky to see the second round. But they should make the playoffs. New coach Barber has them playing well enough for that.

Likely Conference Rank:  7th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs Slim

7.

Washington – God bless the South! George McPhee should get down on his knees and sing hallelujah to Gary Bettman for the miracle of expansion. How else can you explain a team that had only 4 wins in its first 20 games actually leading a division at the season's halfway point? Much credit has to go to the Florida Panthers too. Their disappearing act this season has allowed the Capitals to rise from the proverbial ashes and make a run at a playoff spot that is richly undeserved. And a 3rd seed too! And make no mistake - if Kolzig stands on his head - and he has done it before - the Cap's might even make it past the first round. If recent rumours of Peter Bondra staying put come true, this chance increases exponentially. That should have McPhee whistling Dixie.

Likely Conference Rank:  3rd
Chance of Missing the Playoffs Slim

After this the picture gets a little muddier. While only 10 points separate the current 4th place team (Buffalo) from the current 10th place one (Atlanta), there is a world of difference in their respective playoff chances. We see four teams battling it out for the final playoff spot in the East, and if you are a fan of one of these teams, better cross your fingers and say a little prayer. Three of them are going to be on the links early.

8.

New York Rangers – Do you get the feeling Mark Messier might have used up his last promise back in ’94? His much-heralded return to the Big Apple has been a personal success so far (stats wise), but as a team, the Rangers are going nowhere fast. In fact, they currently inhabit the 6th worst position in the NHL, trailing such perennial contenders as Atlanta, Anaheim and Minnesota. So why do they make our list of teams on the bubble? In a word, Messier. You just can’t count the guy out. Even now. Even at 40. And while the Rangers might fall short of the playoffs, watch for them to make the race interesting down the stretch, just as the Messier-led Canucks did last year. No team with Messier, Leetch, Fleury and Richter can ever really be counted out. But they are going to have to stop letting the puck wind up in their own net if they want any chance of a post-season appearance this year.

Likely Conference Rank:  9th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs High

9.

Boston – Try as we might, we just don’t want the Bruins to make the playoffs. It would just reward the Keenan/Sinden insanity. Besides, we can’t see them knocking off New Jersey in the first round, even if they did (not that we would put money on anyone toppling the Devils that early). But Keenan’s mind games do have a way of keeping things interesting, and we expect the Bruins to be in the hunt right down to the wire. If Dafoe can keep his gamey knee healthy, and Thornton and Samsonov can produce more consistently, and Jason Allison finds his scoring touch, and Kyle Mclaren shakes the injury bug and… you get the picture. Too many question marks here for a true playoff team. And too many goals allowed for a low scoring one. Sorry Bruins fans – looks like another long summer. They never should have let that Orr guy go….

Likely Conference Rank:  10th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs High

10.

Atlanta – What’s this? A second year expansion team in the playoff hunt? Who would have predicted this at the start of the year! But then, who would have thought Atlanta would have arguably the hottest line in hockey either. Sadly for the Thrashers, they live and die by that line. Together, Audette, Ferraro and Brunette have 135 points. The next ten highest scorers on the team don’t have that many combined. And while their goaltending has been steady, their defence has been porous, and recent injuries have only helped to make it more so. It would be a nice story if the Thrashers made the playoffs, but unfortunately, we just can’t see it happening. Look for them to fall back to earth in the second half, with the playoffs likely becoming a distant thought by the time April rolls around. Very distant.

Likely Conference Rank:  11th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs It's a Lock

11.

Carolina – How do the Hurricane’s do it? Take all that potential and consistently turn it into a mediocre season? You would think they traded Babe Ruth at some point. Or maybe Ron Francis, or Chris Pronger. But we think this might be the year. The ‘Canes were the last team to miss out on the playoffs last year, despite having more wins than the Sabres, who made it to the big show. Like last year, they have been pretty good at keeping the puck out of their own net. Combine that with having a far better home than road record, and a couple of home games in hand in the second half, and we think Carolina has a legitimate shot. The team’s problem so far has been scoring - just like last year - but that seems to be improving, and if Rod Brind’amour starts to bring his “A” game to the arena regularly, or gets traded for someone who does, the ‘Canes might even make a run at the Caps for first in their division. But we have already said that no one should be too proud of finishing first in the Southeast. Still, we will give them the edge on that last playoff spot. Don't count out a close playoff miss though - just like last year.

Likely Conference Rank:  8th
Chance of Missing the Playoffs 50/50

Finally, there are the also-rans – those left battling for a lottery draft pick. Suffice it to say, that we feel confident in saying that none of Florida, Tampa, Montreal or the Islanders have a chance of making the playoffs at this point. Which is sad. Imagine being halfway through your work year and already having to think about the next one. Or in some cases, whether there will be a next one. We are particularly disappointed by the Islanders – our early season long shot picks to make the playoffs. Guess that is why they were long shots. Oh well, there is always the World Cup. Again.

So there it is – the Eastern conference. With a little bit more prognostication, we should soon be able to tell you who is going to win the Cup. Hell, you might as well not even watch. But we wouldn’t want to encourage that. After all, it’s not really about who wins and loses. It is about who you pick up in your playoff pool!

Next Week: The Wild West - what will it take to make the playoffs? 


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