Playoff
2001 - Mid-Season Preview
January 15, 2001
Playoffs?
It isn’t even the All-Star break! Yet if you take a good look at the
standings, and at what teams have done so far, it is easy to see the
playoff picture starting to develop. And while there are still lots of
question marks, and lots of hockey to be played, one of the main
differences between fantasy and reality hockey, is that teams rarely buck
the trend that they have already established. So that said, we have taken
our first shot at a playoff prediction. Yah, we know it is early, but we
wouldn’t be much good if we told you what was going to happen when
everyone else can figure it out. And we may make some mistakes, and miss a
couple of things here and there. But who’s perfect? We’ll start in the
East, with our predictions of who will finish where, in the hunt for Lord
Stanley’s mug.
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Part 1
- The East
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Remember when
the East used to be the class conference in hockey? Not any more.
Going into the second half of the season, the first place team in the
East wouldn’t finish higher than 6th in the West. What does this
mean? Absolutely nothing. Defending champions New Jersey would have
finished 4th in the West last season. Think they care? Here’s a bet
that first round losers St Louis didn’t have nearly as much fun
drinking out of the President’s Trophy. Whatever team finally comes
out of the East will have just as good a chance at finishing with the
Cup. Better maybe, because of far easier travel schedules. But they
have to make the playoffs first! Let's start with the easy ones.
There are 6
teams that would appear to have a pretty good hold on a playoff
position, even at the halfway point of the season. New Jersey, Ottawa,
Buffalo, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have all demonstrated
that they have enough talent and depth to at least assure themselves
of a post-season berth. Add Washington, a team taking advantage of
some poor league "demographics," and that leaves the rest of
the East battling it out for one remaining spot.
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1. |
New Jersey
–
Despite some early season
woes, the defending champions seem to have regained their stride and are a
lock to finish at the top of their division, with a serious shot at the
conference. The Devil's have all of the pieces in place to mount a
successful defence of the Cup. With the possible exception of Claude
Lemieux, they have lost almost no one of consequence from last year’s
cup winning team. And their stumbles early on were more a result of some
key unsigned free agents, rather than an inherent weakness in the team.
Look for the Devils to pick up a key piece or two for the playoff run, and
to round into form nicely by the start of April.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
1st |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Nil |
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2. |
Ottawa – The Senators,
backstopped by Patrick Lalime, appear on track for a 3rd
straight playoff appearance. The return of Alexei Yashin
has given the team much needed depth, and Lalime has
started to come into his own as a stopper. The biggest
question mark for the Senators is whether he is capable of
carrying them through the playoffs - or at very least,
past the first round. As always, injuries are an issue -
the Sen's must keep their key players healthy -
particularly Alfredsson and Arvedsson. The
latter of those two is the key to the success of both Bonk
and Hossa, so watch for a big drop off if he gets injured
again.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
2nd |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Nil |
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3.
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Pittsburgh – The story of
the season so far, and not because of their play. First it
was Jagr's slump; then it was the return of Mario. Now it
is how far can they go without first class goaltending.
The presence of "The Magnificent One" instantly
upgrades the Penguins from borderline playoff entrants to
top 4 seed. But without a legitimate top rank goaltender
(our apologies to Garth Snow, but we just don't have the
faith that he can carry a team on his back - as a playoff
goalie needs to) the Pens maybe looking at an early
playoff exit. That said, look for them to sign or trade
for a playoff proven goalie before the deadline. Can you
say Tom Barrasso? Word is, he knows the owner.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
4th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Slim |
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4.
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Buffalo – Will this or won't this be the Dominator's last year?
Who knows. But suffice it to say, the Sabres have one of
the best one-two goaltender combinations in the league
right now, and that alone should be enough to guarantee
them a playoff berth. They play a tight defensive style,
they work hard every night, and with the expected return
of Doug Gilmour (injury) and Mike Peca (unsigned), we
think they have both the leadership and the grit to make
another serious playoff run. And yes, there are some big
ifs in this list (if Hasek rounds into form and doesn’t
get traded, if Peca signs and if Gilmour can stay
healthy), but we have faith that the Sabres will get it
all together in time to take second in their division -
and the unenviable task of facing Mario and the Pens in
the first round.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
5th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Slim |
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5.
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Toronto
– Last year the Leafs did not have enough toughness.
So they went out and signed Shane Corson and Gary Roberts.
Now the Leafs seem to have lost the team speed that made
them such an effective offensive force last year. That
said, it is defence and goaltending that wins playoff
games, and the additions of Corson and Roberts will
certainly give the Leafs more toughness and character for
a playoff run. Yet the team still hasn't filled the void
on defence left by the injury to Bryan Berard, and without
a bona fide "go to guy" on defence, we doubt
that they can go far. The X factor with the Leafs is Eric
Lindros. While he doesn't fill their most pressing need,
the "Big E" would bring another dimension to
this team. That's of course, if Bobby Clarke has the
sanity to trade him before the deadline. But no one has
ever questioned Clarke's sanity….
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
6th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Slim |
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6.
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Philadelphia – On their way to the conference finals last year, the
Flyers had to cope with the injury and impending free
agency of their top player, a coaching change and
controversy, the off-ice circus that is the Clarke-Lindros
relationship, and a playoff untested, rookie goalie. Sound
familiar? And to think that they came within a goal of
advancing to the finals. Hey, maybe this year Team Turmoil
can win the Cup! But seriously, the biggest "if"
hanging over this team is the Eric Lindros saga. If GM
Clarke can put aside his personal feud with the Lindros
family just long enough to work out a deal that will see
Lindros move to another team (unlikely), he just might be
able to remove enough distractions and gain enough in
return to get his team past the first round again. But we
doubt it. Clarke wants too much for Eric, and he has made
the issue personal. Combine that with the John Leclair
back injury/re-signing saga and we think the Flyers will
be lucky to see the second round. But they should make the
playoffs. New coach Barber has them playing well enough
for that.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
7th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Slim |
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7.
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Washington – God bless the South! George McPhee should get down on
his knees and sing hallelujah to Gary Bettman for the
miracle of expansion. How else can you explain a team that
had only 4 wins in its first 20 games actually leading a
division at the season's halfway point? Much credit has to
go to the Florida Panthers too. Their disappearing act
this season has allowed the Capitals to rise from the
proverbial ashes and make a run at a playoff spot that is
richly undeserved. And a 3rd seed too! And make no mistake
- if Kolzig stands on his head - and he has done it before
- the Cap's might even make it past the first round. If
recent rumours of Peter Bondra staying put come true, this
chance increases exponentially. That should have McPhee
whistling Dixie.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
3rd |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Slim |
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After this the picture gets a
little muddier. While only 10 points separate the current
4th place team (Buffalo) from the current 10th place one
(Atlanta), there is a world of difference in their
respective playoff chances. We see four teams battling it
out for the final playoff spot in the East, and if you are a
fan of one of these teams, better cross your fingers and say
a little prayer. Three of them are going to be on the links
early.
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8.
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New York Rangers – Do you get
the feeling Mark Messier might have used up his last promise
back in ’94? His much-heralded return to the Big Apple has
been a personal success so far (stats wise), but as a team,
the Rangers are going nowhere fast. In fact, they currently
inhabit the 6th worst position in the NHL, trailing such
perennial contenders as Atlanta, Anaheim and Minnesota. So
why do they make our list of teams on the bubble? In a word,
Messier. You just can’t count the guy out. Even now. Even
at 40. And while the Rangers might fall short of the
playoffs, watch for them to make the race interesting down
the stretch, just as the Messier-led Canucks did last year.
No team with Messier, Leetch, Fleury and Richter can ever
really be counted out. But they are going to have to stop
letting the puck wind up in their own net if they want any
chance of a post-season appearance this year.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
9th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
High |
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9.
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Boston – Try as we might, we
just don’t want the Bruins to make the playoffs. It would
just reward the Keenan/Sinden insanity. Besides, we can’t
see them knocking off New Jersey in the first round, even if
they did (not that we would put money on anyone toppling the
Devils that early). But Keenan’s mind games do have a way
of keeping things interesting, and we expect the Bruins to
be in the hunt right down to the wire. If Dafoe can keep his
gamey knee healthy, and Thornton and Samsonov can produce
more consistently, and Jason Allison finds his scoring
touch, and Kyle Mclaren shakes the injury bug and… you get
the picture. Too many question marks here for a true playoff
team. And too many goals allowed for a low scoring one.
Sorry Bruins fans – looks like another long summer. They
never should have let that Orr guy go….
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
10th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
High |
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10.
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Atlanta – What’s this? A
second year expansion team in the playoff hunt? Who would
have predicted this at the start of the year! But then, who
would have thought Atlanta would have arguably the hottest
line in hockey either. Sadly for the Thrashers, they live
and die by that line. Together, Audette, Ferraro and
Brunette have 135 points. The next ten highest scorers on
the team don’t have that many combined. And while their
goaltending has been steady, their defence has been porous,
and recent injuries have only helped to make it more so. It
would be a nice story if the Thrashers made the playoffs,
but unfortunately, we just can’t see it happening. Look
for them to fall back to earth in the second half, with the
playoffs likely becoming a distant thought by the time April
rolls around. Very distant.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
11th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
It's
a Lock |
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11.
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Carolina – How do the
Hurricane’s do it? Take all that potential and
consistently turn it into a mediocre season? You would think
they traded Babe Ruth at some point. Or maybe Ron Francis,
or Chris Pronger. But we think this might be the year. The
‘Canes were the last team to miss out on the playoffs last
year, despite having more wins than the Sabres, who made it
to the big show. Like last year, they have been pretty good
at keeping the puck out of their own net. Combine that with
having a far better home than road record, and a couple of
home games in hand in the second half, and we think Carolina
has a legitimate shot. The team’s problem so far has been
scoring - just like last year - but that seems to be
improving, and if Rod Brind’amour starts to bring his
“A” game to the arena regularly, or gets traded for
someone who does, the ‘Canes might even make a run at the
Caps for first in their division. But we have already said
that no one should be too proud of finishing first in the
Southeast. Still, we will give them the edge on that last
playoff spot. Don't count out a close playoff miss though -
just like last year.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
8th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
50/50 |
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Finally, there are
the also-rans – those left battling for a lottery draft pick.
Suffice it to say, that we feel confident in saying that none of
Florida, Tampa, Montreal or the Islanders have a chance of making the
playoffs at this point. Which is sad. Imagine being halfway through
your work year and already having to think about the next one. Or in
some cases, whether there will be a next one. We are particularly
disappointed by the Islanders – our early season long shot picks to
make the playoffs. Guess that is why they were long shots. Oh well,
there is always the World Cup. Again.
So there it is –
the Eastern conference. With a little bit more prognostication, we
should soon be able to tell you who is going to win the Cup. Hell, you
might as well not even watch. But we wouldn’t want to encourage
that. After all, it’s not really about who wins and loses. It is
about who you pick up in your playoff pool!
Next Week: The
Wild West - what will it take to make the playoffs?
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