Playoff
2001 - Mid-Season Preview
January 15, 2001
Playoffs?
It isn’t even the All-Star break! Yet if you take a good look at the
standings, and at what teams have done so far, it is easy to see the
playoff picture starting to develop. And while there are still lots of
question marks, and lots of hockey to be played, one of the main
differences between fantasy and reality hockey, is that teams rarely buck
the trend that they have already established. So that said, we have taken
our first shot at a playoff prediction. Yah, we know it is early, but we
wouldn’t be much good if we told you what was going to happen when
everyone else can figure it out. And we may make some mistakes, and miss a
couple of things here and there. But who’s perfect? We’ll start in the
East, with our predictions of who will finish where, in the hunt for Lord
Stanley’s mug.
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Part 2
– The West (is Best)
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The
prevailing thought these days as we hit the midway mark in the long
grueling NHL season is that this years' Stanley Cup winner will come
from the West. With 8 teams in the conference currently on pace to
reach at least 95 points is it any wonder? However, we think much like
last year, there is a prevailing notion that the teams in the
"Best" Conference in the NHL could very well beat the
daylights out of one another before they ever get to the Finals – to
face a less skilled, but likely less exhausted Eastern Conference
champion. As such, its going to be a dog fight to find out who has the
pleasure or unfortunate pleasure- depending on your outlook – of
running the gauntlet that is the NHL Western Conference.
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| 1. |
Colorado
Avalanche: As mentioned in our pre-season preview, 'Lanche
GM Pierre Lacriox gets our vote for GM of this new
millennium. He has effectively surrounded his nucleus of
outstanding players (Sakic, Forsberg, Roy) with a plethora
of young skilled hockey studs (Drury, Hejduk, Tanguay)
making his the hockey model. Sakic is playing like a guy
possessed – leading the league in points and playing
like he wants the Hart trophy as league MVP this year. A
full season with Ray Bourque, a rejuvenated Patrick Roy
and the continued development of their under-rated d-core
of Foote, Miller, De Vries and Skoulla and the Avalanche
look almost unstoppable. If the ‘Lanche hit the playoffs
healthy – look out.
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| Likely
Conference Rank: |
1st |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Nil |
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2. |
St.
Louis Blues: If Pierrre LaCroix is our choice for GM
of the new millennium; Blues’ head coach Joel Quennville
is our coach. Yes they have quality players in Pronger,
Turgeon, Demitra and MacInnis. But we would almost dare
any hockey fan to name the third line center in St. Louis
– heck, we dare people to name the left-winger that
plays with Turgeon? (Dallas Drake – in case you
wondering). Quennville has managed to squeeze an amazing
amount of skill, determination and commitment out of every
component of his team. The Blues are a disciplined,
well-oiled machine when it comes to playing the game. They
play their game, never panic and as a result – recorded
their 4th loss of the season in the middle of
November. Biggest question remains Turek between the pipes
and how they will adjust to some key injuries in the
second half: Demitra is still out for two months, Pronger
will be out for a month, and MacInnis has not sat down for
his annual ten game trip to IR just yet.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
2nd |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Nil |
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| 3. |
San
Jose Sharks: The Sharks have quietly and unassumingly
had amazing success this season, that they hit the 45 game
mark with a conference-leading 59 points. The play of
Evegeny Nabokov has been brilliant. Couple that with the
apparent arrival of Patrick Marleau (19 goals) and the
awesome two-way play of Ricci, Thornton and Sundstrom –
and the Sharks look like they are for real. However, a
huge gap to fill has got to be the loss of the club’s
leading scorer Vincent Damphousse with a shoulder injury.
With Damphousse gone until at least the second round –
there would appear to be a lot of pressure on the young
supporting cast and a rookie goaltender.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
5th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Slim |
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4.
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Detroit
Red Wings: After starting off to a less than regular
Red Wings beginning – it was evident that the Red Wings
needed the then injured Steve Yzerman more than he needs
them – the Red Wings seemed to have righted their ship,
amassing the best road win record in the league. For the
first third of the season it looked as if Chris Osgood
couldn’t stop a beach ball and Slava Kozlov has looked
even more inconsistent than usual. With off-season
deserter Igor Larionov back in the fold, Scotty Bowman
will have his regular, veteran laden team ready to make
another run at the Cup. He needs to hurry as father time
continues to pound on the Red Wings'
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
4th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Slim |
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5.
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Dallas
Stars: The 1998-99 Stanley Cup Champions have looked
very good (26 wins and 57 points in 44 games), despite the
on-going circus that is Ed Belfour. The continued griping
of Brett Hull must be the tonic for the Golden Brett to
discover his scoring touch as he hits the 44 game mark
with 26 goals and 50 points. Solid supporting cast led by
Brendan Morrow and Grant Marshall, and a healthy Jere
Lehtinen, Joe Nieuewendyk and Sergei Zubov has contributed
greatly to the Stars success so far. If Stars’
management is able to get another solid defencemen and
forward before the deadline, as expected, the Stars look
very formidable for the playoff run.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
3rd |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Nil |
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6.
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L.A.
Kings: If the Kings can buck up and sign Rob Blake,
they have a chance to really put together a successful
season. Solid out of the blocks, the Kings have crumpled a
bit in the second 20 games due to the Blake distraction
and a key injury to then red-hot Ziggy Palffy. Unheralded
contributions from Lubomir Visnovsky, Matthieu Schneider
and Steve Reinprecht have really helped the Kings remain
in the playoff picture. If a happy (and healthy) Rob Blake
signs – the Kings could be a handful come the playoffs.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
6th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
Depends
on Blake |
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7.
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Vancouver
Canucks: After 44 games the Canucks have 55 points –
a start at the beginning of the season that both GM Brian
Burke and coach Marc Crawford would have been extremely
happy with. Markus Naslund is leading the league in goals,
while Ed Jovanovski and Mattias Ohlund have really played
well back on the blue line. But the second half of the
season gets no easier for the Canucks. A tougher schedule,
a very long road trip at the end of February and problems
between the pipes could be huge hurdles for the NHL’s 4th
youngest team.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
7th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
50/50 |
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8.
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Edmonton Oilers: After a
very tough first half schedule, where they played more away
games and reached the mid-point of their schedule quicker
than any other Western team, the Oilers hit the new year
tired and troubled by injuries. Their strong start wilted by
October – and Doug Weight, while putting up good stats
still doesn’t look 100%. A smart move, for a small market
team, in bringing in Anson Carter for Bill Guerin has
disrupted the locker room a bit, but can only get better as
the second half kicks off. The two glaring weaknesses of the
Oil are a lacking of scoring depth, and the woeful play of
the d-core – particularly Tom Poti. Salo looks soild, but
the Oilers are gonna battle for the final playoff spot, but
don’t be surprised if they don’t make it.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
8th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
High
- Need trade help |
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9.
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Phoenix Coyotes: The
disruption that is the uncertainty of the ‘Yotes ownership
is beginning to take its toll on the team. Off to a blazing
start in September, October – thanks mainly to the play of
Sean Burke – the team is a win one lose one mode, and
beginning to slid in the standings. The atmosphere in the
dressing room has got to be brutal – as captain Tkachuk
has been traded and untraded by the media more times than he’d
care to count. This is not a well-rounded team by any
stretch. Performance busts in Travis Green, Trevor Letowski
and F/A signings of Joe Juneau and Brad May have hurt this
team – and will hamper their attempts to stick in the
playoff hunt.
| Likely
Conference Rank: |
9th |
| Chance
of Missing the Playoffs |
High
- Cost cutting |
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As
for the rest? Well let's just say that this Conference is as strong as
we've seen it in years. With strong pushes Nashville and Chicago could
make runs. But let's face it, the competition is too rough and with
key injuries to Mironov and Zhamnov, the Blackhawks are, for all
intents and purposes, out of the race. As for the Preds, they are just
not deep enough to make a run over a full 82 game schedule yet.
There we have it –
the Western conference.
Things will change between now and April
(in fact we will revist our predictions regularly throughout the
remainder of the season) but this is where we see it for now. Look for
our next series of articles after the Trading Deadline (March
13th).
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