Top 30 Prospects Update
 
March 22, 2001

Part 3 - Players Ranked 16th through 30th

In October we had a look through the crop of top prospects we thought could have a fantasy impact and picked our top 30. Well, as we near the halfway point of the season we felt it was time to do an update and see where they stand. Over the next few weeks we'll have a look at these players, comment on their progress. If we look like we're on pace we'll do a bit of gloating and then project where they will finish. If we're way off we'll try and figure out why. It could be injuries, a lack of playing time or maybe they were sent back to Junior. Or, quite simply, it could be that they've just played poorly. We're not going to hide behind excuses. If it looks like we blew it we'll tell you. 

This group is really a mix. We managed to nail players like Havlat, Gaborik, Turco, Markov and Willis. But then we managed to pick guys who spent some or all of their time in the minors or junior. Some of the picks were risks on our part (Oullet, Klesla and Beech were longshots to stick). Others were just crazy...what were we thinking with Varlamov, Fata and Laplante. And still others looked good early (Vishnevski and Novotseltsev). Let's have a look at the numbers.  

16. 

Martin Havlat (OTT) - Havlat has been a very pleasant surprise. It hasn't mattered who his linemates are, he has performed well. With a late season burst he could give Evgeny Nabakov and Brad Richards a run for the Calder Trophy.

  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 38  .47
Current Pace  65 39 .6

17. 

Marian Gaborik (MIN) - Coming out of the draft everyone knew he was good. The question was whether he was capable of breaking into the league this year. Well he's silenced the nay-sayers with an outstanding rookie campaign.  

  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 38 .46
Current Pace 67 35 .52
18. 

Marty Turco (DAL) - The Stars have an affinity for developing young goaltenders. Roman Turek and Manny Fernandez, both traded away prior to the 1999 and 2000 expansion drafts respectively, were products of the Dallas system. The next in the line of possible successors to Ed Belfour is Marty Turco. The controversy surrounding Belfour at mid-season gave Turco a chance to shine and he took advantage. He is the Stars' future.

  Wins GAA
PJ Projection 11 2.40
Current Pace 13 1.94
19. 

Kris Beech (WAS) - This was a real gamble for us. We were playing the odds because the Caps have never signed a junior eligible player and sent him back to junior. If a player signs he stays. Well Beech's stay lasted all of 4 games. Oops. 

  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 37 .45
Current Pace 4 0 0

20. 

Adam Mair (TOR) - Another risk for us. We believed that Mair was good enough that the Leafs would make room for him.  Well, that didn't happen. Coach/GM Pat Quinn decided that he wanted to go with a primarily veteran lineup. The trade to the Kings should help his long term production, but this year is a write-off.

  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 32 .39
Current Pace 27 3 .11
21.  Andrei Markov (MTL) - This was another calculated risk for us. We weren't sure if he was ready for a full season but playing for the Habs (between injuries and salary purges) can get a young player into the NHL pretty darn quickly. Markov didn't disappoint. While he had numerous defensive lapses he did prove that he will be an excellent professional d-man and a valuable fantasy pick. 
 
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 27 .33
Current Pace 66 26 .39
22.  Shayne Willis (CAR) - Willis is a classic late-bloomer. The team had such high hopes for him that he was eventually buried under his own potential. Those who have followed Carolina closely know that GM Jim Rutherford has always believed in Willis...now his faith has finally born fruit. Willis is in the running for the Calder Trophy, although he will have a hard time matching the production of Brad Richards of Evgeny Nabakov. 
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 32 .39
Current Pace 73 39 .53
23.  Rico Fata (CGY) - When make projections about which prospects will play and which won't we try to look at opportunity and talent. Based on that, we really thought that Fata had a shot (especially when Marc Savard was unsigned at the beginning of the season). Turns out he didn't. Savard signed in mid-October and coach Don Hay called up players like Daniel Tkaczuk to fill the holes left by injury. 
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 32 .39
Current Pace 5 0 0
24.  Maxime Oullet (PHI) - This was another gamble on our part. We looked at the situation in Philly and concluded that Oullet had as good a chance as anybody of landing the back-up role. We fully expected that Boucher would have a solid year and would hold onto the starting job. When Boucher collapsed the Flyers had no choice but to go with a veteran starter and bump Boucher to the backup role. Funny thing was that the veteran had never played an NHL game before. But that didn't matter to Roman Cechmanek. Today he's a household name and is seen as the saviour of the Flyers' season. The only guy not happy about that is Oullet. To accommodate Cechmanek's callup he was dispatched back to junior.  
  GAA Wins
PJ Projection 2.75 10
Current Pace 2.37 0
25.  Toni Lydman (CGY) - He had a great training camp and won a job outright. He started the seasson off well, but then the wheels fell off. He made defensive mistakes and started to look lost out there. Then he missed a chunk of time with a concussion. Overall his numbers aren't bad, but we expected just a little bit more. 
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 38 .46
Current Pace 54 26 .48
26.  Rostislav Klesla (CLB) - This was just a case of not passing up on talent. When he made the team out of training camp it was impossible to leave this guy off the list. He's talented enough to have made an impact this year, but the Blue Jackets did the right thing in sending him down. He will be even more prepared and there will likely be much less pressure on him. 
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 27 .33
Current Pace 8 2 .25
27.  Sergei Varlamov (CGY) - What were we thinking?  Sure Varlamov is talented. Sure the Flames had gaps coming out of training camp. But there was no indication this was going to happen. We're prepared to write it off as a brain cramp. 
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 30 .37
Current Pace 0 0 0
28.  Darryl Laplante (MIN) - This was a chance that we took. Laplante is one of the fastest skaters in professional hockey. He was always close to making it with the Wings. We figured that the lack of depth in Minnesota would have guaranteed him a spot. That didn't happen.  
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 30 .37
Current Pace 0 0 0
29.  Ivan Novotseltsev (FLA) - We figured that there was the opportunity for both Shvidki and Novotseltsev to make the Panthers full-time. Looks like we were wrong on both counts. This guy has talent but he just got caught up in the disaster that was the Panthers' season.  
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 27 .33
Current Pace 35 8 .22
30.  Vitaly Vishnevski (ANH) - We knew that Vishnevski was going to play and we thought he'd get his fair share of powerplay duty. Well we were right on the first part. Just so happened that even with injuries to d-men like Trnka and Havelid, Vishnevski couldn't pick up his scoring pace. 
  Games Points Points/Game
PJ Projection 82 25 .31
Current Pace 80 13 .16

Considering that this was the bottom half of our list, we think we did pretty well. There are only three players that I would say shouldn't have been in this section (Varlamov, Laplante and Fata). Once the regular season is complete we will publish a table of our projections and the final stats. As well, we will list the rookies we missed (e.g., Nabakov, Brent Johnson, Lubomir Vishnovsky).  

Look for this article in April.  

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