Injuries and Fantasy Hockey

Part II: The Four Faces of Injury

November 4, 2000

There are a number of factors that influence a player's risk of injury. In this article we will look at four:

• Is he "fragile"?

• Does he play too aggressive?

• Does he suffer from a chronic injury?

• Is his age catching up with him?

The first factor is probably the most frustrating for you. You recognize a player's talent. You dream about his potential. But you also know that every year he's going to miss time because of a rut in the ice, an awkward check, or worse. These are the players that always seem to miss at least 10-15 games a year. They suffer what seems to be a different injury each time so their ailments could not be called chronic. For all intents and purposes they are just brittle or suffer from bad luck. Either way they cause you to pull your hair out. These players have always existed. In the 80s there was Pat Flatley. In the early 90s it was Greg Adams. Today there are a number of guys who fall into that category including Daniel Alfredsson and Saku Koivu. These are guys that, whether it's a hip flexor or a blown out knee, they are bound to miss some serious time every year.

Fantasy Impact: These guys are hard to peg. Every year people always say "look at his points per game" or "if he just stays healthy". And every year people pay too much or draft them too high. The safe bet is to let them go to someone else or pick them up when they're undervalued. Never, I repeat, never get suckered by talent. Remember how we talked about discounting their stats in Part I?

The second factor can also be very aggravating. All of us in Canada have been exposed to the constant rantings of Don Cherry about players not being aggressive enough. As a result, many players have changed or adapted their style to be more aggressive and play "bigger" than they are. Wendel Clark was always a classic example of this. Don't get us wrong, he was a really tough guy. But the constant grind of living up to that role wreaked havoc on his body every season. There are many guys playing today that suffer every year. As well, we have identified some players who may have problems in the future. When identifying who could fall into this category listen for important statements about a guy's playing style like "he plays bigger than his size" or "he's not afraid to mix it up and go into the corners". Many of the players in this category tend to be Europeans who, for the most part, never grew up playing this style but feel that in the NHL they have to show some toughness.

Prime examples would be Peter Forsberg, Pavel Bure (although he's toned his game down a bit since being traded to Florida), and Darius Kasperitus. These players' aggressive style has led to injuries in the past. Other "at-risk" players include the Sedins (just listen to what Trent Klatt has said about them), Sami Kapanen, Magnus Arvedsson, Jamie Langenbrunner, Steve Konawalchuk and Valeri Bure.

Fantasy Impact: In the short term these players may benefit from this style of play. It could increase their production or open up the ice for them. But over the long haul it leaves them open to nagging injuries...or worse.

The third factor influencing a player's injury risk is the existence of a "chronic" injury. Thanks to modern surgical techniques players can return to the game after numerous surgeries on knees and ankles (just ask Esa Tikkanen). But there are still a number of players who are "one hit away from being out of the league."

This factor is by far the easiest to identify. However a player's talent sometimes clouds the decision-making process. In the past players like Bobby Orr (knee), Mike Bossy (back), and Pat Lafontaine (concussion) have been forced to retire prematurely due to injury. Today, this situation most often impactss players who have suffered multiple concussions although there are a variety of injury risks facing some of the brightest stars in the game: Eric Lindros (concussion), Mattias Ohlund (fluid build-up in the eye), Patrik Stefan (concussion), Dominek Hasek (groin/abdomen), Rob Niedermayer (concussion), Boyd Devereaux (concussion) and Alyn McCaulley (concussion). All of these players can be considered to have chronic injuries that at any point could force them out of the NHL. As well there are a number of players who could move into this category - John Leclair (back), Koivu (knee), and Byron Dafoe (knee).

Fantasy Impact: Watch these players closely. They could come cheap because you never know when their career could be over. On the positive side though, look at Gary Roberts. If we had been writing this article four years ago he would have been at the top of this list after undergoing career-threatening back surgery. However he has been relatively injury free and, barring a freak accident, isn't on anybody's injury list in the near future.

The final factor influencing a players injury risk is age. As a player gets older and the wear and tear of hundreds of games begins to take a toll, the nagging injuries happen more often and last longer. Players like Mark Messier, Doug Gilmour, Steve Yzerman, Joe Nieuwendyk, Valeri Kamensky and Steve Thomas have all missed time to injuries that they would have overcome quicker in their youth. As well, these guys have all played through nagging injuries which always impacts performance. The biggest problem from a fantasy perspective is that most nagging injuries don't last very long (but they happen frequently) and are very hard to adjust for.

Fantasy Impact: Most aging superstars still tend to command a high price - often higher than they are worth. How much did Joe Nieuwendyk go for in your league this year even though he has been plagued by a series of serious and nagging injuries over the past few years? Look to take advantage of this type of player when they are coming off an injury. You might be able to get them cheap in a deal.

So what does this all mean? Well, what we want you to do is be careful. Don't just pay attention to whether a guy is hurt right now. Look at a player's history before you draft or trade for him. Check out his injuries. Check out if his injuries have become more frequent with age. And most importantly let a player's injury history influence your decision to pick him up.

Part III: Injury Trading Tactics