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Last year, Geoff Rhine put together this
article for us on playoff pools. We liked it so much, we thought we would
share it with you again...updated of course!
For the hardcore hockey fan, there is truly
nothing better than the Stanley Cup playoffs. The regular season is truly
thrown out the window and a few big upsets occur, the referees put their
whistles away, and best of all, the hockey gets downright nasty. For the
hardcore fantasy hockey fan, the playoffs are just as exhilarating. Those
regular season pool stats now mean absolutely nothing, the scoring format
is usually a little different, and the competition is bloodthirsty.
Because this is the case, the hockey poolie must treat a playoff draft
much differently than a regular season draft. No longer can you walk into
your draft without a plan- you must have an idea of what is going to
unfold in the NHL playoffs. What you need is a set of guidelines for
setting up, scoring, drafting, and of course, winning your playoff hockey
pool. Luckily, you have come to the right place.
Setting Up Your Pool
After a long, complicated regular season
full of trades, active lineups, and points for plus/minus, it is often
wise to keep your playoff pool as simplistic as possible. The ideal number
of owners is anywhere from 8 to 12, with each team drafting 10 players.
However, if the number of owners in your pool is higher or lower than
8-12, your pool can still work- just make sure you keep the total number
of drafted players somewhere between 80 and 120. If the total is under 80,
there are bound to be many quality players left undrafted, and if the
total is higher than 120, some teams are bound to end up drafting players
like Eric Messier and Colin White, who had as many regular season points
as I had dates.
It is also wise to keep the scoring simple.
This way, poolies are usually less wrapped up in calculating totals as
they watch the games, and are able to fully appreciate the spectacle that
is playoff hockey. Basically, 1 point for a goal and 1 point for an assist
should do it. Of course, many of you will employ more complex scoring
systems, and find them to be much more engaging. I have no problem with
that, but in my experience, playoff pools seem to work out better using a
scoring system a 4 year old could figure out. If you absolutely need
things spiced up a little, consider adding an additional point for an
overtime goal, or even allowing goalies to be drafted (award 1 point for a
win, and 1 additional point for a shutout). Anything more, and your
playoff pool will start to look a little too much like your regular season
pool.
Before the
Draft
Before you enter the war room, there are a
few things you must do. The first is to map out the Stanley Cup Playoffs
much like you would the NCAA Tournament bracket, with one exception -
include the number of games you think each series will last. For example,
let’s use this year’s match-ups in the Western Conference (keep in
mind, these are not my predictions, but just examples). In the first
round, you predict the following:
 |
(1)Detroit over
(8) Edmonton in 5 games |
|
(2) Colorado
over (7) LA in 6 games |
|
(6)Phoenix to upset
(3)San Jose in 7
games |
|
(5)St. Louis to beat
(4)Chicago in 7
games |
After figuring out the match-ups for the
second round (highest seed remaining versus lowest seed remaining), you
predict this to happen:
|
(1)Detroit over
(6)Phoenix in 6 games |
|
(2)Colorado over
(4)St. Louis in 7 games |
In the third round:
|
(1)Detroit over
(2) Colorado in 6 games |
And, after doing the same thing for the
Eastern Conference, you predict:
|
(2)Colorado over
(7)New Jersey in 7 games |
Now that you have the entire playoffs
mapped out, the next step is to add up the number of games you predicted
each team will play. Using the predictions outlined above, your Western
Conference totals would look like this:
|
(1)Detroit –
17 games |
|
(2)Colorado –
26 games |
|
(3)San Jose – 7 games |
|
(4)Chicago –
7 games |
|
(5)St. Louis
– 14 games |
|
(6)Phoenix – 13 games |
|
(7)LA – 6 games |
|
(8)Edmonton – 5 games |
The next step is to multiply each player’s
PPG (points per game) by the number of games you have predicted his team
will play.
After ranking your projected point totals,
you are left with a very reliable tool for drafting your team. You may
choose to draft your team solely on the basis of this list, or you may use
it as guideline- that will be covered below. Keep in mind, however, that
your list is entirely dependent upon your predictions of which teams will
advance in the playoffs, and how many games each series will last.
Therefore it is best to map out the playoff tree with your brain and not
with your heart, and to study each possible match-up as much as you can.
In some cases, you may decide that it is to your advantage to map out more
than one scenario, particularly if you can’t decide who will come out on
top in a certain series. Note the similarities and the differences between
the two- this will help you determine your strategy at the draft table. A
few more tips in this regard:
- Teams that advance in the playoffs
always, ALWAYS, have stellar goaltending.
- Results from regular season match-ups
mean little in the playoffs. Instead, look at things like home-ice
advantage, past encounters in the playoffs, hot streaks leading into
the playoffs, and injuries.
- Upsets are going to happen. Since the
NHL adopted its current playoff format, the top 4 seeds in each
conference have never all advanced to the second round.
Drafting Your Team
Now that you have completed the necessary
pre-draft preparations, there is only one cardinal sin you can now
possibly commit- drafting your team with no specific strategy. In
actuality, this applies to all drafts in every fantasy sport. You can have
every statistic from the last 25 years memorized and available for instant
retrieval from your long-term memory, but that could all mean jack if you
start to waver from your plan and pick random players for no apparent
reason. Here are 4 basic options/plans that I have seen work to
perfection, and can recommend whole-heartedly (in no particular order):
-
Draft the highest ranked player
remaining on your projected point total list.
This strategy is really quite simple,
but again, its accuracy/results depend entirely upon your predictions.
This fatal flaw often manifests itself in players with very high PPG
averages, whose teams lose in the first or second round, when you have
predicted their teams were going to advance a round or two further.
Therefore, if you are going
to abide by this method, most important is that you are confident in
your playoff tree predictions.
Teams chosen using this strategy are
characterized by a high number of superstars, even though they are
scattered amongst many different teams, most of which are not likely
to advance very far in the playoffs (players from the Cup-favorites
are likely to be scooped up by teams employing different strategies).
These types of teams rack up big points in the first and second
rounds, and try to hold on for dear life during the third and fourth
rounds.
-
Draft players only from the two teams
you predicted to make it to the Stanley Cup finals.
If, after mapping out the playoff tree
a few times, you become fairly certain about which two teams will meet
in the finals, you may decide to choose players solely from those two
teams. Your predicted point totals ranking list is again invaluable,
but this time you apply it only to two teams, and not 16. The thinking
with this plan is that even third or fourth line players from those
two teams will end up with higher point totals than a superstar from a
team destined to lose in the first round. Furthermore, because these
teams are the two that are least susceptible to suffering an upset and
getting knocked out of the playoffs (in your opinion), you can be
fairly confident that they will play a high number of games. Of the
four strategies described here, this is the most popular, and can work
perfectly if you have selected the right teams. However, if too many
people in your pool adhere to this strategy, and each of them has the
same two teams in mind, the available talent pool may be depleted very
quickly.
For example, let’s look at this year’s
playoffs compared to last year’s. This year, the general consensus
is that Colorado and New Jersey will meet in the finals. If too many
of your pool’s owners believe that will be the case, this strategy
may prove to be too popular for its own good, and none of the teams
will have a very imposing roster (in fact, there won’t even be
enough players to go around!!).
Teams of this nature tend to finish up
the first round in last place, and as the draft progresses, slowly
work their way up the leaderboard. They are characterized by,
obviously, players from only two high-caliber teams, some of which are
superstars and some of which are third/fourth liners.
-
Draft players only from the teams you
predicted will make it to the "final four".
If you were having trouble mapping out
your playoff tree and found that you needed to account for more than
one scenario, this is the strategy for you. It follows the same
criterion for player selection as number two (highest ranking player
remaining on your predicted point total sheet), but instead of
limiting the number of teams to 2, the number becomes 4. Although this
allows a little more room for error, it still requires that you be
fairly confident in predicting the four teams that will make it to the
Stanley Cup semi-finals. Although four teams is ideal, the number
could be lowered to 3 or raised as high as 5 or 6, depending on how
confident you are in your selections.
For example, if you feel that New
Jersey will definitely make it out of the East, and that the West will
be a battle between Colorado and San Jose, pick from those 3 teams
only. If you think the East title is between Toronto, Philadelphia,
and New Jersey, and that the West is between Detroit and St. Louis,
pick from those 5 teams only. As you can see, this strategy is really
just a variation of the second, with more emphasis on the playoff tree
as a whole.
These teams tend to be composed of
mostly second line players from a number of Cup-contending teams.
Championship teams drafted using this strategy typically score big
points in the third round, and are lucky enough to have about half of
their players advance to the Cup finals.
-
Draft 80% of your players from one
"sleeper" team. I have never been brave enough to try
this method, but I have seen it work once or twice. The best example
was a team drafted in a 1998 playoff pool that consisted almost
entirely of Buffalo Sabres. The owner of this team was wise enough not
to draft any Sabres with his first two picks - he figured that if any
other poolies were going to draft any Sabres at all, it would be in
the late rounds and not in rounds 1 or 2. He drafted two Colorado
Avalanche players in rounds 1 and 2, and his remaining 8 players were
all Sabres. I can remember watching the finals and thinking to myself,
‘this guy is getting a least two points for every goal Buffalo
scores!" While the rest of us each had 1, sometimes 2 or 3 Stars
left, he had every Buffalo player and won our pool quite handily.
It goes without saying that this
strategy is the riskiest, but also the one with the most upside. You
should consider using it if you have a strong hunch that a very quiet
4th or 5th seed (not unlike Jersey last year)
has a real chance at making it all the way. Or, if you keep finishing
in last place in your playoff pool every year, try it as an
alternative. Keep in mind that this team must have excellent
goaltending and a great defense, and please, don’t pick with your
heart here.
These "sleeper" teams, when
chosen properly, lurk in the bottom third of the standings until the
semi-finals, when they begin to make their steady ascension to the
top. They are often laughed at on draft day, but when they work, boy,
is it a thing of beauty.
In closing, let me point out that it is one
thing to take your strategy to the draft, and it is quite another to let
your draft strategy come to you. What I mean by this is simple- choose
your strategy according to the flow of the draft. If you were planning to
pick all New Jersey and Detroit players and by your first pick the top 4
players from each of those teams have been chosen, don’t settle for
Bobby Holik or Slava Kozlov. Playoff drafts can be won a number of
different ways - don’t hesitate to attempt a strategy that is being
placed in your lap, ever so subtly. After all, it is a rare occurrence for
the so-called Cup-favorites to actually meet in the finals. And, if you
think about it, isn’t that why we love the NHL playoffs so much??
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