Puckjunkie Home  

We are the fantasy hockey specialists!

Puckjunkie.com - Fantasy Hockey Cheatsheets

 Search PJ? Web?
 

Cheatsheets  |  Predictor Login  |  Archives  |  Resources  |  Merchandise  |  Subscriptions

September 27, 2001

Scott Brattly

Top 10 Risky Picks

In our latest top ten list, we looked at guys that we think are risky picks to repeat their performances of last year and that based on their last season’s stats will go higher than where they should. This doesn’t mean that these guys won’t have solid seasons, but it does mean you’ll need to ensure you don’t over-value them and pay too much, while they leave you wanting more. That said, here we go…

1.

Michael Nylander – (LW/C) – Chicago Blackhawks

Seems like Nylander has been playing in the league forever…and frankly that’s not that far off the mark.  After 8 seasons in the league, Nylander has had two solid back-to-back seasons of 24 and 25 goals respectively. So why is he here? There is no argument about Nylander's offensive ability. He kind of reminds us of Andrew Cassels at times. The problem has been his durability and his style of play. He has been known as an injury-plagued guy, and he is not exactly one who likes it when the going gets physical. Nylander has benefited from a serious lack of depth in Chicago and from feeding the puck to offensive spitfire Steve Sullivan. As the Hawks develop some of their young talent, the likely guy to get his minutes reduced is Nylander. We think it’ll be tough for him to get to 60 points again this season.

2.

Espen Knutsen – (C) – Columbus Blue Jackets

Last year Mr. Knutsen had many hockey poolies asking the question, Espen who? His first full season in the NHL saw the Norwegian born Knutsen finish with 52 points in 66 games. Many of those came on helpers to last year’s comeback player of the year candidate, Geoff Sanderson, and his 30 goals. While Espen is a good playmaker, his second time ‘round the NHL won’t be nearly as good as the first as he will no longer surprise defensemen. Same goes for Sanderson, as teams look at shutting down these two players to defeat the Blue Jackets. He may exceed 60 points but he will have to stay healthy and work even harder than he did last year.

3.

Brendan Shanahan – (rw) – Detroit Red Wings

Make no mistake: Shanahan has and will always be one of our favorite NHL players. Gritty and strong with a hard shot, Shanahan is an excellent hockey player. But… recent developments should have you convinced that he will have to work much harder to see 30 goals again. Last year’s playoffs were a nightmare for Shanahan – as coach Bowman actually benched this pit-bull. With Luc Robitaille and Brett Hull in town, it doesn’t take Nostradamus to see that Shanahan may not receive the same quality ice-time and minutes that he did in the past. Also remember that this will be his 15th season in the NHL, and as hard as it is to say, this is a recipe for a drop off in production. If he plays with Stevie “Y”, Shanahan should get his 30+ goals again. If he doesn’t, he could be in for a rough season – and you will see us revising our predictions at mid-season.

4.

Rob Niedermayer – (c) – Calgary Flames

At the tender age of 26, it’s hard to think that a guy could be in need of a second chance, but face it… Niedermayer is in need of a big year. It’s kind of a put up or shut-up year for him and playing with the Flames will make putting up that more difficult. You’ll remember that in his 2nd year in the NHL he had 26 goals and 61 points, and looked to be on his way to being the next Doug Gilmour. But something went very wrong. Injuries took their toll: knee, back and even worse – a series of concussions. Niedermayer has not been the same since.  New GM Craig Button sent unhappy Valerie Bure (and his 30 goal potential) to Florida to get Niedermayer (and his 30 points) in the hope the change of scenery will allow him to blossom. This could be a fatal mistake for Mr. Button. If he stays relatively healthy, the best Niedermayer can hope for is a season with points in the low 40s.

5.

Claude Lemieux – (lw) – Phoenix Coyotes

In one of the stranger moves not made this year, Wayne Gretzky and company did not trade Lemieux in their house cleaning of over-rated, over-paid talent. Our theory? Someone had to be over 30 on this new look ‘Yotes squad! Lemieux has never been a regular season stud – but if we were prepping for the playoffs, Lemieux would definitely be on our list of go-to-guys. It’s going to be a lean year in the desert, and Lemieux will struggle to reach 20 goals and 45 points unless he’s traded to a contending team… early.

6.

Dave Andreychuk – (rw) – Tampa Bay Lightning

Andreychuk and Oilers’ defensemen Tom Poti likely have the longest hockey sticks in the NHL – and over the years Andreychuk has used it well. But at 38, father time is firmly in Andreychuk’s rear-view mirror. Still blessed with soft hands, Andreychuk had 20 goals last year in Buffalo. But on a quick Lightning squad, Andreychuk simply won’t be able to keep up with the play. He’ll see some PP time, as he still can knock them home from 10 feet with the best of them. But Andreychuk’s contributions to the Lightning will be felt more in the locker room than on the ice. 11 goals and 25 points is our prediction.

7.

Martin Gelinas – (lw) – Carolina Hurricanes

Gelinas is, flat out, a warrior. With a face that looks like he got caught in a golfers stampede, Gelinas continues to throw his body around the ice with reckless abandon. Trouble is, he is beginning to show the wear and tear of all that fearlessness. A bona fide sniper out of junior, Gelinas never gained the confidence and consistency to make him the goal scoring threat his skills warranted. As a result, he quickly turned himself into a speedy agitator with the heart of a lion in a tabby cat’s body. Gelinas hit for 23 goals last season, but we think it will be hard for him to repeat those numbers – particularly if the younger ‘Canes continue to develop (Willis, Vasicek and O’Neill). If they do, Gelinas could be back in the third line role again, and his numbers will reflect that. He won’t hit 20 goals and he’ll struggle to get close to 40 points.

8.

Ray Ferraro – (c) – Atlanta Thrashers

If you were the only one on the planet (despite Ray’s mom) who thought that at the age of 36 he’d hit for 29 goals and a 76 point season…well…you should be buying lottery tickets. Ferraro showed signs of his former self, and played with a passion for the game that we wish more NHL’ers did. Ferraro was getting points from everywhere – off of opponents skates, team-mates butts, funky hops off of boards – so many that we thought he had the Midas touch. In what will be his swan-song season, the classy former Trail Smoke-eater will not duplicate last season numbers. Gone are linemates Brunette and Audette – two thirds of what was for a while the best line in the NHL. In are a whole bunch of high-potential youngsters. If he plays with two of Kovalchuk, Heatley or Kallio, he has a shot at 60 points. If he gets pushed to the 2nd or 3rd line he will be lucky to reach 15 goals and 40 points. Watch closely what happens in the last few games of the pre-season.

9.

Mark Messier – (c) – New York Rangers

Placing the “Moose’s” name on this list was hard for us to do, for if Gelinas is a warrior, Messier is the Ultimate Warrior. Still the best leader in all of professional sports, Messier’s on-ice impact is diminishing faster than his hairline. Messier managed to bag 24 goals last year – but 12 of those were on the PP and he was a brutal -25. The signing of Eric Lindros, the need to play youngsters like Mike York and Manny Malhotra and the fact that Messier will turn 41 before the All-Star break, are all signs pointing to a significant drop in production. The Moose will still see PP time, but his increasingly glaring defensive lapses make him a liability at even strength. 18 goals and 52 points are the maximums we forecast.

10.

Alexander Mogilny – (rw) – Toronto Maple Leafs

This signing by GM/Coach Pat Quinn still has us scratchin’ our heads. It was Quinn at the helm of the Vancouver Canucks that made the deal to acquire Mogilny back in 1995. And it was Quinn that suffered as Mogilny picked and chose his years with the Canucks (his contract ones) to actually display his abundance of offensive talent. Still one of the best pure snipers in the NHL, Mogilny was true to that form last year and tallied 43 goals. The Maple Leafs signed him for big $$, and that means the odds that Alex the Great will now revert back to Alex the Just O.K. are very high – do not over-value him. If you pick him thinking he’s got another 40 goal performance in him – you could be sorry.  If he gets 35 goals and 75 points we will be very pleasantly surprised.

Looking for more help in your draft? Check out the Puckjunkie.com Fantasy Hockey Cheatsheets

 


Copyright 2000-07 Puckjunkie Inc.

All Rights Reserved

Front Office | Privacy Policy | Contact Us

Puckjunkie Home

back to Puckjunkie.com