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In Part I of our lessons
learned from last year’s “New” NHL, we looked at the importance of
special teams scoring, the role for fighters, the greater emphasis on
rookies, how team scoring is more spread out, and how good goalies stayed
good, but average goalies took a hit. Here we’ll complete our list, starting
with crucial insights on the offensive upside of the penalty kill.
6. Don’t Forget the Penalty Killers
Shorthanded Goals (SHG) were up over 22% last season, which makes sense if
you think about the increase in the number of power plays. And while the
total still averages out to less than 10 SHG per team, it does mean that
there are extra SHGs to be had. Most teams employ the same PK unit on a
regular basis. Put a premium on the top scorers who penalty kill (e.g.
Marian Hossa, Pavol Demitra, Daniel Alfredsson) as their short-handed
chances have increased significantly. Correspondingly, the scorers who don’t
kill penalties (e.g. Naslund) may wind up with less icetime overall, and
thus fewer scoring opportunities. 7. The Death
of the Shutout? Last season only 6 goalies had
5 or more shutouts. This is in sharp contrast to 03/04, when 14 managed the
same feat. Now you may say to yourself, “Well with increased scoring that
makes sense.” But what about this little tidbit: the top 3 goalies last year
had 10, 7, and 7 shutouts whereas in 03/04 the top 3 had 11, 10 and 9. This
just reinforces for us that top goalies will still put up great numbers, but
the lesser backstops won’t be able to hide behind the clutching and grabbing
of their d-men any longer. This lesson alone should force you to pick your
goalies early. 8. Are PIMs Still a Valuable
Fantasy Category? Many fantasy leagues use
Penalty Minutes (PIMs) as a category to add value to otherwise
“fantasy-challenged” players. It’s not something we’ve ever advocated and,
in the “New” NHL, PIMs may have been made more irrelevant. In 05/06, 15 of
the top 25 scorers had 50 or more PIMs; in 03/04 only 8 reached that same
mark. To put it another way, 249 players had at least 60 PIMs last season
compared to only 208 in 03/04: that’s almost a 20% increase. But, while
there were six 200+ PIM guys in 03/04 there were only three in 05/06. So
what does this all mean? With all the obstruction penalties being called,
the PIM category is becoming “watered down”. The point all along was to
reward people for picking up non-stars or to add value to power forwards,
but when guys like Sidney Crosby are picking up 110 PIMs, are you really
achieving your objective? If your league is going to keep PIMs maybe think
about scoring them in reverse (the Lady Byng category) where the highest PIM
total equals the lowest ranking in that category.
9. Plus Players Fifty-seven players in 05/06
were a +15 or better compared to 69 in 03/04. But interestingly 21 players
in 05/06 were a +25 or greater; only 10 had those totals in 03/04. So again,
we see that the change in the rules has created some real separation and
thus some real value. Put another way, the good +/- guys got better, but the
average ones got worse. When drafting for this category, make sure you
target the few who are really good. 10. The
Schedule Matters Many would argue that this has
always been the case, that teams in the East have an advantage because of
their shorter road trips and proximity to home. But that is mostly a playoff
issue. With the Divisional and Conference focus of the new schedule, it is
rare for a team to really be up against it due to the schedule maker.
However, the intra-divisional aspect of the schedule is a HUGE factor. Each
team plays each divisional opponent 8 times; that’s almost half a team’s
games in their own division. So if you are Detroit, and you play a total of
24 games against Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis, it isn’t surprising that
you come away with 44 of a possible 48 points. If your league counts goalie
wins and losses you can see the immediately increased value for a goalie on
a good team in a bad division, and vice-versa. In very balanced divisions,
goalies stats may suffer accordingly too, as there is a far greater
likelihood of several split season series. Keep this in mind when drafting
goalies (and to a lesser extent, for plus/minus).
So there you have it, the Puckjunkie.com Top 10 fantasy lessons from the
“New” NHL. If we think of any more before the season starts we’ll write them
up. In the meantime, remember it’s never too early to prep for your draft.
Someone in your pool has already printed out ten spreadsheet pages and is
pulling out the highlighter pens! |
