Tampa
bay Lightning
PJ CORRESPONDENT: DAVID JONES
00/01 Outlook
Update - March 7, 2001
It didn’t take long for the new ownership group in Phoenix to make their mark on the Coyotes. On Monday, General Manager Cliff Fletcher traded holdout goaltender Nicolai Khabibulin and forward Stan Neckar to the Tampa Bay Lightning for defenceman Paul Mara, forwards Mike Johnson and Ruslan Zainullin, and a 2nd round draft choice. Khabibulin has been holding out for a salary increase for the past two years, and was probably deemed tradable when Phoenix signed current #1 goaltender Sean Burke to a 3-year deal in February.
This was a good deal for the Coyotes. In addition to ridding themselves of the disruptive situation caused by Khabibulin’s holdout, they get three good young players and a relatively high draft pick in return. Mara, in his 2nd season, has excellent size and speed, and is a good point man on the power play. However, he has to improve defensively (he was a –17 in 46 games with Tampa), and has been criticized for his soft play. Johnson is a good young player, who at the time of the trade was 3rd in team scoring.
In return, Tampa receive a proven #1 goaltender in Khabibulin, something the franchise desperately needs. The Lightning have been among the league leaders in goals allowed for the past three years. By acquiring Khabibulin, in addition to a trading for Adrian Aucoin of the Canucks, the Lightning have taken a step forward in reversing this trend. Tampa GM Rick Dudley still has to sign the "Bulin Wall", but given the commitment they made to acquire him, Dudley must feel the Lightning have a good chance of keeping the netminder in Tampa for years to come.
The Veteran Stars
Vincent Lecavalier (C) At age 19, Lecavalier qualifies as a veteran on this very young Lightening team. Last March he was appointed the youngest captain in NHL history, a sign of his maturity and leadership
skills. Lecavaliar has steadily increased his point totals over the last 2 years and barring injury should hit the 70 to 80 point mark. The former #1 pick overall is a complete player with size,
speed and superior puck handling skills. Management hopes that he will be the cornerstone of this franchise for years to come. Hockey fans can only hope that he can overcome the
depressing effects of playing for a perennial loser like Tampa Bay.
Brian Holzinger (C) Holzinger, acquired last year in the Chris Gratton deal, is a small, speedy, forward and a tenacious penalty killer. These qualities are badly needed by the Lightening, who have been
among the league leaders in goals allowed for the last 3 years. Holzinger’s lack of lack of size and his inability to finish scoring chances have kept him from breaking the 40-point barrier
during his three years in the league. He will be given every chance to surpass that mark in Tampa Bay.
Frederik Modin (LW) The former Leaf is the exact type of player that GM Rick Dudley wants for the Lightening: A big, rugged forward, with excellent skating skills. Modin has one of the hardest shots in the
year and is very hard to move off the puck, but can also play indifferently at times. . This year he is on the first line with Lecavaliar, and should benefit from the latter’s skating and
play-making skills. Expect Modin to surpass the 48 points he scored last year.
Todd Warriner (LW) For the last two months of the 1999-2000 season, Warriner looked like the second coming of Brian Bradley, scoring 14 points in the last 19 games. GM Rick Dudley rewarded him with a
two-year $2.85 million dollar contract. However, the verdict is still out on whether Warriner’s good play was an aberration or a sign of things to come.
The Young Guns
Paul Mara (D) This first round draft choice from 1997 is a big, strong defenceman with excellent skating skills. In his rookie season, Mara put up some good offensive numbers (18 points in 54 games)
and became a force on the Tampa Bay power play. He also showed his toughness last season by logging 25 minutes a game down the stretch after missing 13 games with a fractured jaw.
However, he has to improve on his +-rating of –27 and must play more physically to help the Lightening in their own end.
Cory Sarich (D) Acquired as part of the Chris Gratton deal, Sarich concentrated on defence during his rookie season. This commitment paid off, as he posted a respectable +- rating of –5. Sarich is also
developing a reputation as one of the NHL’s nastiest hitters. Puckjunkies should note that Sarich is capable of scoring (he scored 48 points in his last season of junior hockey), and his
offensive skills should develop over time.
Pavel Kubina (D) Like Paul Mara, Kubina is a young defenceman with good offensive skills (26 points in 69 games), but like Mara, needs to improve defensively (+- rating of –19).
Nils Ekman (RW-LW) Ekman had a brief tryout with the Lightening last season, but was quickly sent down to Tampa’s IHL affiliate in Detroit for development. Ekman has good speed, but is on the small side.
He will probably spend most of the year developing his game in Detroit.
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Scoring Output: The addition of Richards, and the increased maturity of the team should lead to increased scoring. Look for something in the range of 215-220 goals.
Experience: This is still a very young team. But players like Lecavalier and Kubina are starting to grow into their leadership roles. Regardless a player like Svoboda will be forced to shoulder a huge leadership repsonsibility.
Optimism:
- Great young core
- Lecavalier may well turn into "Michael Jordan on ice"
- Richards and Sheldon Keefe are going to be great
- Very deep on defense
Pessimism:
- Way too young!
- No veteran leadership in net
Other 'Ning Stuff:
1999/2000 Stats
Projected Stats
1999/2000 Category Rankings
(subscribers only)
Projected Category Rankings
(subscribers only)
Training Camp Updates
(subscribers only)
Lightning Schedule
Lines
(November 14)
|
LW |
C |
RW |
| Modin | Lecavalier | Holzinger |
| Kharitonov | Warriner | M.Johnson |
| R.Johnson | Martins | Drullia |
| St. Louis | Richards | Keefe |
| LD | RD |
| Mara | Zyuzin |
| Cullimore | Kubina |
| Galanov | Sarich |
Goalies:
Weekes
Cloutier
Supporting Cast:
Millar (injured)
Primeau (injured)
Svoboda (injured)
Gusev
Gordie Dwyer (Suspended List)
Special Teams
1st Powerplay Unit
| Modin | Lecavalier | M. Johnson |
| Kubina | Mara |
2nd Powerplay Unit
| Kharitonov | Warriner | Holzinger |
| Zyuzin | Sarich |
Key Shorthanded Threats
Holzinger
Warriner
Significant Off-Season Transaction
Signed 1998 draft pick Brad Richards
Analysis: If we had been writing this a year ago, the talk would be squarely focused on some disaster or another. Or maybe we'd be talking about the big acquisition of Dan Cloutier. But it's 2000 and we the focus shifted to a crafty forward who scored 186 points in the QMJHL and let his team to the Memorial Cup. In camp, Brad Richards has fit right in and looks to be destined for a lot of playing time this year. While preseason lines are always subject to change the Lightning coaches seem comfortable with a Modin-Richards-Primeau combination. His appearance at camp almost didn't happen. In fact, he almost re-entered the draft. But a last minute effort by both sides got a deal done and it looks like the 'Ning could have a gem on their hands. In your league look for Richards to go fairly early as the hype machine takes over. No matter how good he is it's still likely that he'll be in the 40-45 point range.
How will this affect the lines? Pre-season prognosticators were divided as to Richards' role with the Lightning this season. But a strong camp has all but guaranteed his spot on the team. He'll likely see 2nd and 3rd line duty (depending on the team) and will see 2nd unit powerplay time.
How will this affect Special Teams? The powerplay could prove to be where a lot of Richards' value is realized. He is an offensive dynamo.
Fantasy Impact: Pay very close attention to the remainder of his pre-season games. If you're in an auction-style rotiserrie draft don't overpay for him and if the price goes up make sure that you encourage the bidding to go higher.
The Rest:
